Kaspi.kz (KSPI)

Statistics

Metric	Value
Last Close	$89.86
Blended Price Target	111.62
Blended Margin of Safety	24.2% Undervalued
Rule of 40 (Next)	63.0%
Rule of 40 (Current)	57.0%
FCF-ROIC	45.0%
Sales Growth Next Year	18.0%
Sales Growth Current Year	12.0%
Sales 3-Year Avg	37.0%
Industry	Software - Infrastructure

Analysis

Kaspi.kz remains a high-quality, unusually integrated digital platform, but its growth profile is becoming more balanced and operationally demanding. The latest reported quarter showed consolidated revenue growth of 18% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA was broadly stable and net income increased only marginally, indicating that expansion is still strong but increasingly offset by funding costs and investment in Türkiye.^[1][4]

The business benefits from frequent customer interactions across payments, marketplace, and financial services. That ecosystem creates attractive revenue durability even though most revenue is not subscription-based. The moat is substantial: local scale, proprietary transaction data, merchant relationships, and cross-selling reinforce one another. Leadership has demonstrated strong execution and willingness to invest for long-term reach, although the Hepsiburada integration and exposure to financial regulation add complexity. Overall, Kaspi.kz looks durable, with its main challenge shifting from proving demand to managing scale, capital intensity, and geographic execution.

What the Company Does

Kaspi.kz operates a consumer super-app in Kazakhstan, combining payments, online commerce, and financial services. Users can pay bills and merchants, shop through the marketplace, transfer money, borrow, and hold deposits within one digital ecosystem. The company earns transaction fees, merchant commissions, advertising and marketplace income, and interest-related revenue from lending and deposits.

The latest company disclosure describes three operating segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. In the third quarter of 2026, reported revenue was approximately KZT182 billion from Payments, KZT124 billion from Marketplace, and KZT489 billion from Fintech, out of consolidated revenue of roughly KZT1.1 trillion.^[8] Fintech was therefore the largest contributor, with Payments and Marketplace providing important diversification.

Revenue Recurrence & Predictability

Kaspi.kz is primarily transactional rather than subscription-based or project-based. Payments and marketplace revenue depend on continuing consumer purchases, merchant activity, and advertising demand, while Fintech revenue depends on loan balances, payment activity, and deposit funding. These streams are recurring in the practical sense that users transact repeatedly, but they are not contractually guaranteed.

Predictability is strengthened by high-frequency use and the integration of services in one application. A customer who uses Kaspi for payments can be marketed marketplace products, credit, or deposits without acquiring a new relationship. However, revenue remains sensitive to consumer spending, credit losses, interest rates, and regulation. The company does not provide a current consolidated percentage of revenue that is recurring or highly predictable, so a precise figure is unavailable.

Revenue Growth Durability

Kaspi.kz can likely sustain above-market growth for several years, but the pace should increasingly depend on execution rather than simple domestic digitization. The latest quarter showed Payments TPV up 14%, Marketplace revenue up 20%, and Fintech revenue up 19% year over year, while e-commerce GMV increased 17% on a constant-currency basis.^[8][1] These figures indicate continued platform expansion across all three businesses.

The main levers are greater engagement among existing users, increased merchant adoption, deeper e-commerce penetration, and international growth through Hepsiburada in Türkiye. E-commerce purchases per consumer rose to 16.3 from 12.8 year over year, suggesting room to increase frequency.^[1] Tailwinds include mobile adoption and migration from informal or cash transactions. Headwinds include Kazakhstan’s finite population, weaker incremental returns as penetration rises, macroeconomic pressure on borrowers, and the challenge of improving Türkiye’s economics without distracting from the core platform.

Economic Moat

Kaspi’s strongest advantage is a reinforcing network. More consumers attract more merchants; more merchants improve selection and convenience; greater activity generates data that supports payments, credit underwriting, personalization, and advertising. This creates switching costs through accumulated transaction history and the convenience of managing several financial and commerce needs in one application.

Scale also supports lower customer-acquisition costs and stronger merchant economics than a collection of standalone services. The brand and localized technology are valuable intangible assets, while proprietary data can improve risk management and targeting. The moat appears durable in Kazakhstan and potentially widening as engagement rises, but it is less proven internationally. Competitors can replicate individual features, and regulators can constrain the use of data, pricing, or cross-selling. Hepsiburada therefore represents both a growth opportunity and a test of moat portability.

Management & Leadership

Kaspi.kz is associated with co-founder and CEO Mikhail Lomtadze, who has led the company through the development of its integrated payments, marketplace, and fintech model. The leadership record is strongest in product integration, monetization, and disciplined expansion of the Kazakhstan ecosystem. The latest results also show a willingness to accept near-term earnings pressure from investment in Hepsiburada.^[1]

Publicly available materials reviewed here do not provide a sufficiently current insider-ownership percentage to state confidently under the specified freshness standard. A notable capital-allocation decision is the continued investment in Hepsiburada alongside ongoing platform development. Management has also adjusted deposit pricing in response to funding conditions, including two 100-basis-point reductions in the three-month deposit rate.^[1]

Key Risks

Regulation is the most important structural risk. Kaspi combines banking, payments, credit, commerce, and consumer data, making it exposed to changing rules on lending standards, deposit pricing, platform conduct, competition, privacy, and financial-sector capital requirements. Restrictions on cross-selling or data use could reduce the economic benefits of integration.

Credit and funding risk are also material. Higher deposit funding costs affected profitability in the latest quarter, and the lending business could face rising losses if household finances weaken.^[1] The company’s exposure to Kazakhstan’s economy creates concentration risk, while currency movements and Turkish operating conditions complicate international expansion.

Technology and execution risks increase with scale. Cybersecurity failures, service outages, fraud, or poor underwriting could damage trust across several businesses at once. Hepsiburada may require sustained investment before it delivers attractive operating leverage, and weaker marketplace economics—such as the reported 8% year-over-year decline in average e-commerce selling price—could pressure monetization if not offset by volume and engagement.^[1]

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Sources

1. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/3Q2026Results_.pdf
2. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_09112026.pdf
3. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_10092026.pdf
4. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/3Q2026_Presentation.pdf
5. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_12112026.pdf
6. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_12082026.pdf
7. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_10082026.pdf
8. https://ir.kaspi.kz/financial-information/
9. https://ir.kaspi.kz/governance/sec_filings/
10. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/Form6-K_12052026.pdf