Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $50.52 | Share Price |
| $36.00 | Fair Value |
| 40.33% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $68.8 B | Market Cap |
| 14.4% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
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Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $36.00.
| 14.0% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 10.5% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 7.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $35.61 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $0.93 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $36.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Apr 24, 2025
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Watch List
| APPF | 4.30% |
| CMG | 40.33% |
| PSTG | -1.39% |
| WDAY | -5.41% |
| VEEV | 19.23% |
| INTU | 20.20% |
| RDDT | 16.57% |
| NTNX | 27.22% |
| CRWD | 95.83% |
| SE | 32.72% |
| SNOW | 13.92% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -38.24% |
| SEMR | -33.68% |
| TSM | -40.25% |
| ZETA | -27.44% |
| GOOG | -50.34% |
| NYAX | -30.24% |
| MSFT | -28.00% |
| FLYW | -39.29% |
| HRMY | -59.63% |
| YOU | -39.80% |
| ABNB | -31.51% |
| ADBE | -41.68% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -23.91% |
| VTEX | -13.76% |
| ODD | -6.91% |
| ASR | -24.09% |
| CELH | 39.84% |
| TOST | 18.60% |
| CPNG | -11.81% |
| HIMS | -5.43% |
| PAYC | -18.56% |
| MNDY | 21.64% |
| GLBE | -21.93% |
| ZS | 38.75% |
| V | -4.82% |
| ADSK | 1.57% |
| NOW | 15.34% |
| MELI | -19.68% |
| FTNT | 1.73% |
| TEAM | 0.14% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates