May 6, 2025
SPS Commerce, Inc
SPSC
Statistics
| $145.13 | Share Price |
| $120.00 | Fair Value  |
| 20.94% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $5.5 B | Market Cap |
| 18.3% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 16.2% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.7% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
| Network Effect Moat |
| High Switching Costs Moat |
Stock Research and Updates
Research Article
SPS Commerce: Connecting the Retail Supply Web
Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for SPS Commerce, Inc (SPSC) is $120.00.
| 21.5% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 10.5% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 12.7% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| 0.8% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 7.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| 0.1% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $118.01 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $2.49 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $120.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated May 6, 2025
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Watch List
| SPSC | 20.94% |
| RDDT | 4.69% |
| APPF | 8.96% |
| CMG | 42.92% |
| INTU | 25.69% |
| WDAY | -0.39% |
| PSTG | 6.48% |
| VEEV | 22.21% |
| NTNX | 37.81% |
| CRWD | 95.72% |
| SE | 44.38% |
| SNOW | 24.26% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -32.05% |
| SEMR | -35.48% |
| TSM | -37.20% |
| ZETA | -33.45% |
| GOOG | -51.93% |
| NYAX | -29.95% |
| HRMY | -53.93% |
| YOU | -40.78% |
| ABNB | -28.99% |
| MELI | -27.91% |
| ADBE | -40.28% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -19.36% |
| VTEX | -2.88% |
| MSFT | -20.48% |
| ODD | 2.64% |
| ASR | -21.72% |
| FLYW | -12.78% |
| CELH | 13.68% |
| TOST | 22.17% |
| CPNG | -3.28% |
| HIMS | 30.13% |
| PAYC | -5.19% |
| MNDY | 21.94% |
| GLBE | -18.41% |
| ZS | 43.04% |
| V | -3.23% |
| ADSK | 7.27% |
| NOW | 17.69% |
| FTNT | -3.23% |
| TEAM | -10.25% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates