Zeta Global Grows Fast but Dilution Lowers Fair Value
Feb 27, 2025
Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price.
Follow @GreenDotStocks
Information contained on this website represents only the opinions of the author and should not be used as the sole basis for investing decisions. By using this site, you agree to all statements in the Site Policy.
Watch List
| CRWD | 104.69% |
| NTNX | 54.28% |
| VEEV | 14.34% |
| SNOW | 51.88% |
| WDAY | -7.60% |
| ENLT | -4.95% |
| WEAV | -17.62% |
| SE | 48.81% |
| SPSC | 20.84% |
| RDDT | 14.77% |
| APPF | 10.11% |
| CMG | 44.89% |
| INTU | 46.90% |
| PSTG | 18.96% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| TBBB | -32.59% |
| SEMR | -31.87% |
| TSM | -27.46% |
| ZETA | -34.00% |
| GOOG | -47.72% |
| ASR | -27.56% |
| HRMY | -52.49% |
| YOU | -32.94% |
| ADBE | -35.63% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| PINS | -14.41% |
| ASML | -15.40% |
| VTEX | 5.60% |
| NYAX | -19.42% |
| MSFT | -15.81% |
| ODD | 17.08% |
| FLYW | -21.57% |
| CELH | 29.32% |
| TOST | 39.47% |
| CPNG | 6.98% |
| HIMS | 35.72% |
| PAYC | 0.68% |
| MNDY | 28.77% |
| GLBE | -24.67% |
| ZS | 78.83% |
| V | 1.38% |
| ADSK | 8.10% |
| NOW | 22.31% |
| ABNB | -24.99% |
| MELI | -23.00% |
| FTNT | 0.61% |
| TEAM | -9.09% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates